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Released: Thursday, October 19, 2017
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. Declined in September
First Decline in a Year, Partly Due to Impact of Hurricanes
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI)for theU.S. declined 0.2 percent in September to 128.6 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and a 0.3 percent increase in July.
“The US LEI declined slightly in September for the first time in the last twelve months, partly a result of the temporary impact of the recent hurricanes,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at The Conference Board. “The source of weakness was concentrated in labor markets and residential construction, while the majority of the LEI components continued to contribute positively. Despite September’s decline, the trend in the US LEI remains consistent with continuing solid growth in the US economy for the second half of the year.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.S. increased 0.1 percent in September to 115.7 (2010 = 100), following no change in August, and a 0.1 percent increase in July.
The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index® (LAG) for the U.S. declined 0.1 percent in September to 125.2 (2010 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August and a 0.1 percent increase in July.
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
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ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership and research association working in the public interest. Our mission is unique: To provide the world's leading organizations with the practical knowledge they need to improve their performance and better serve society. Winner of the Consensus Economics 2016 Forecast Accuracy Award (U.S.), The Conference Board is a non-advocacy, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org
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